I’ve been struggling for weeks, wanting to add my small piece to the debate raging on now about the European Union. As the United Kingdom, should we stay in?
The struggle hasn’t been getting to an answer. The answer is easy. We should definitely remain a member of the EU.
The struggle has been how to convey the impact that this would have – both on building new ventures (the topic of this blog) and the country as a whole. The impact of leaving is so large, so far-reaching, it is hard to get your hands around it. And the benefits of staying are so pervasive that you take it for granted.
I often use the analogy of divorce. A divorce is about more than just leaving your bedfellow and housemate. In the same way, the EU debate is about more than just leaving a club. It is about long-term security and stability. It is about partners in the world who understand us and share our values. It is about economic prosperity.
And like a divorce, the act of leaving the EU would be a painful one. First it would tear a hole into finances. The Bank of England, the IMF, the Confederation of British Industry, Bill Gates, Richard Branson, Michael O’Leary, Paul Krugman, etc etc etc all believe that the UK is better off in the EU. I looked and couldn’t find a credible independent business or economic source advocating to leave. Admittedly I didn’t look very hard, but then again, if they were there, they would be on the Leave website.
One only has to look at the current low that sterling has reached based on just the fear of Brexit. Currency traders aren’t exactly known for putting politics before profit.
And on top of all this, leaving would mean having to pay the divorce lawyers. Virtually every government body and major corporation would be putting considerable money and teams into figuring out an extraction over several years. The Leave case talks a lot about agility. This is the opposite of that.
Moving on beyond money, like a divorce, leaving would tear into friendships. We’d find out who likes us for us, or whether it’s because we’re part of the EU. I suspect that most countries and businesses that come to the UK like us a lot more now, while we’re part of a 500 million person market.
But perhaps most importantly, it would tear into our sense of self. Like a macho man, the Brexiteers insist that we can cast away our partners. The problem with that is we’d be casting away the one set of people in the world that share our values and cultural understanding. As much as we joke about the French being French, we also joke about Londoners vs Mancunians. When it comes to differences, we make mountains out of molehills.
Like our European neighbours, we are a liberal democracy. We believe in the right to vote. We believe in free speech. We believe in the rule of law. We believe in social safety nets. We believe that if our neighbour is sick and poor, she should have access to healthcare. We believe in protecting the rights of workers.
And while we may have different views over the details, again these are just molehills. Divorcing, when we have so much in common, would be on some level a rejection of this part of ourselves. Leaving would change who we are. And it would cost us a unique set of friends in the world.
We don’t have a good reason to separate
I wouldn’t argue that divorce never makes sense. But if you’re going to do it, have a good reason. Be certain that the benefit will significantly outweigh the losses.
One of my main issues with the Brexit case is that it is essentially conjecture. With conjecture, anything is possible. For example, one story was “we could be like Switzerland and Norway, while striking trade deals with our former colonies!”
When Barack Obama, John Key and Malcolm Turnbull all tell us to stay in the EU, it’s a sign from said former colonies. And to be like Switzerland, we’d have to be a tax haven. And to be like Norway, we need more oil. So if we follow the conjecture further, if we leave, we would be a lonely country fracking our countryside and doing funny things with bank accounts.
The Brexiteer case is a fantasy about being single again. But once we realize that our ex has kept the house and the cute barista at the coffee shop does not want to give us their number, the feeling that we’ve made the biggest mistake of our generation will set in.
EU membership gives us influence over an entire continent
The European Union is made up of 28 countries and 500 million people. In comparison, the United States is only 320 million people. The economy of the EU is US$18.5 trillion, outweighing that of the US or China.
On a global scale, the EU is a big deal. And we’re a big member. By population and GDP, the UK is the second biggest member of the European Union. We hold 10% of the seats in a European Parliament, although we’re just 1 out of 28 countries.
And that influence within the EU buys us influence in the wider world. Our non-European friends are friendly in large part because we are a member.
We have a powerful seat at one of the biggest tables in the world. You don’t give that up to have the only seat at a folding card table outside of the room. Politically, it’s a short-sighted move.
The Big Picture is peace
There are a lot of costs to leaving, whether it’s our wallets, our businesses or even our holidays. But that’s petty stuff. Let’s take a big picture view.
The European Union and its predecessors were started to unite us in peace. Our countries had spent the first part of the last century killing each other. Trade and political unity was put in place to stop it from happening again.
Given the last several decades of peace, the EU has done its job. And it can continue to do so – but only if we stay in. Our departure would be a serious blow to the EU, hitting it at a fragile time. One only has to remember history from 100 years ago to realize how in fragile times, things can turn ugly quickly.
I would like to believe it’s not a high probability event. But 10 years ago, I would never have predicted a major global recession, the greatest humanitarian crisis since World War II and the Apprentice guy being within arms reach of the White House.
We’re in uncertain times. But one thing we can be certain of is that each vote to leave chisels away at our most important long-term defense against conflict. The last century brought us trench warfare, aerial bombings of civilians – and much worse. Swinging a pick axe at the thing we built to stop history from repeating itself is arrogant. Only the arrogant gamble with long-term security.
Have the benefits spread enough?
It is easy sometimes, sitting in London and working in tech, to forget that the benefits of the EU may not be obvious to everyone. The EU fuels our businesses, giving us access to a huge market, bringing talent and investment to our companies and making London the capital of European tech.
But the fact that the EU debate has come this far means something is wrong. Perhaps the benefits of the EU have not spread far enough. Or rather, perhaps the benefits of economic growth have not spread far enough.
Real median income in the UK is still below where it was back in 2009/10. House prices have risen to push down home ownership rates to some of the lowest levels since 1988 and the number of first-time buyers still hasn’t surpassed the level in 2007.
Against this backdrop, I imagine it is easy for frustration to be directed at immigrants. Certainly blaming foreigners is an easy platform to run on, a tactic not lost on politicians like Putin or the guy from the Apprentice. And in this vein, going against the European Union becomes a vehicle for gaining higher office.
Although I believe that we will ultimately vote to stay in the EU, there is a long-term challenge to ensure that the benefits of the EU are not only apparent, but felt, by a broad segment of the UK.
The great failing of the European Union
The great failing of the EU is the lack of a European identity. I think it was quite telling that in the recent terror attacks in Brussels and Paris, many conveyed a sense of empathy that was along the lines of “It is terrible what happened to them.”
But in a sense, it happened to all of us. The attacks were not against the French. Nor the Belgians. They were against open societies, the European kind of societies. Paris and Brussels were two cities added to the list that London was already on.
Perhaps the lack of European identity is simply a question of language. Or it’s more subtle than that and it’s a lack of shared symbols and narratives.
Whatever the reason, it is important to our long-term security, economic prosperity and influence over the continent to ensure that the European Union stays strong, rather than dismantle it. We must vote to remain.
GS Dun builds new ventures and products, such as CakeAB, the easy-to-use pocket calculator for AB tests. Our name is short for “get sh** done”, so while we can talk the talk, we prefer to keep our meetings short and just get on with it.